This is a new blog created by members of the Department of Politics and Contemporary European Studies at the University of Sussex. It offers academic staff, research students, visiting researchers, postgraduates and undergraduates the chance to post columns and comments on any aspect of the contemporary political scene in Britain and abroad. The blog aims to offer a chance for all in our community - and beyond - to contribute to political debate.
Robust exchanges of views are fine, but keep it clean!
This first column announces this week's event organised by the wonderful Politics Society at Sussex. On Friday at 1pm in the Falmer House Debating Chamber on campus a debate will be staged on the key political question of the moment:
Is Brown a Bottler?
My view, for what it is worth, is that he is. His friends say he never wanted an autumn election, and that he was led astray by poor advice from the 'teenagers' in the Cabinet. Probably true, but beside the point. He allowed the speculation to build far too much to be able to back away from an election at the last minute. To follow that with this week's inheritance tax announcements looks nakedly opportunistic. Just this week's crisis? All forgotten soon? Perhaps, but I think he may have done lasting damage to his personal reputation for competence and trustworthiness in this age of valence politics.
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6 comments:
A week is indeed a long time in politics - that's all it took for the Conservatives to turn a seemingly unassailable Labour lead into an off-puttingly close race. The fact that they were able to do so, however, probably indicates Labour's lead was always fairly soft - based more on a bounce that was unduly inflated by Brown's effective handling of the crises over the summer.
I'm not surprised he didn't go for it - but, as you said, the mistake was to let speculation get so far that calling the whole thing off made him look cowardly. The speculation also had the effect of uniting the Tories and making what could have been a dodgy conference into a triumph.
Still, that said, the election's not already over bar the shouting. The really interesting thing to watch is the Lib Dem vote - it looks really squeezed. Can Ming hang on if it stays like this?
I wouldnt bet my mortgage on Ming being Lib Dem leader by the end of the year (mind you, I wouldnt expect the bookies to accept my mortgage as payment - its with Northern Rock so it's probably not worth the paper it's written on!)
The last week or so has been fascinating. I was certain there would be an autumn election - I never bought into this 'prudence' argument, surely the prudent thing to do is to call a election when you have a big poll lead?
Brown has frittered two huge assets - his reputation as a strong and decisive leader; and the notion that he has ended spin (the Iraq trip was a catastrophe, he should have gone on TV and said it was a huge mistake and they wont do it again).
In two years time he wont look new he certainly wont look spin free and he will probably be dealing with the same issues in health, education, transport, housing, pensions and the economy that he is now so he wont look like someone who has delivered great change either!
His only hope is that Cameron still looks like a chinless Tory toff leading a team of, well, chinless Tory toffs.
I agree with Tim. The Brown bounce was always going to be soft since
Gordon Brown is hugely overrated as a political operator - which he amply demonstrated in Bournemouth this year in what was a singularly plodding and stodgy speech to the Labour Party. One would think that he might want to impress his party when addressing them for the first time as Prime Minister. The man really has no charisma, and this will catch up with him soon enough. At least Brown's difficulties mean that the Blairites are coming back out of the woodwork and regrouping.
What is so exciting about British politics at the moment is that the Tories are finally starting to look like they want to win again. Bar this inheritance tax nonsense, they even have some proper policies again. I am also delighted that the BBC and even the Guardian are actually starting to report goings on in Tory politics in a way that doesn't constantly imply that the Conservatives are a bunch of plutocratic and xenophobic has-beens. Whether they are or not is neither here nor there; what matters is journalistic integrity. Although I am a Labour party member, I don't want to live in a one-party state, least of all one where there is only one candidate's name on the ballot paper for leader of the ruling party. Consequently, it may be time for a change soon, both for Britain and for Labour to remain electable by avoiding the agonies of the last Conservative administration.
Agreed. Voters wont like this. Cowardly? Sensible I would argue. Why hold an election if you might well lose? Not that I think he would have done - but it was simply too big a risk and too short a PMs tenure. He could have been left truly red.
In terms of 'valence': my guess is the economy will determine the next election (hardly a major statement). If we get a major slump, he may well go amidst hugely inflated claims about economic mismanagement. If we ride the wave, more than likely he will stay. I can't see the Conservatives producing enough policy space between themselves and Labour to persuade voters that a government with competent economic record should go. I can, however, see them producing a contest which will boost turnout (but not by much).
I am not at all sure that the whole cuffuffle will be held against Brown. He will probably go to the polls in 2009 now, and an awful lot can (and will) happen between now and then.
The relatively small number of people who follow political events in detail will no doubt not forget the will-he won't-he saga of Autumn 2007, but I strongly suspect that most other people will simply move on to other things. Other issues will quickly crowd this particularly saga out ...
I am also intrigued as to where the Lib Dems will go next in programmatic and strategic terms. They are in a tight spot and if I were a Lib Dem strategist I would be worried. I thoroughly expect more U turns (that is a given) and more programmatic inconsistency (again, another given with Ming's mob if you look at how they have behaved over the last decade), but that has not seemed to do them too much electoral harm recently. Definitely an interesting one to watch ...
"The relatively small number of people who follow political events in detail will no doubt not forget the will-he won't-he saga of Autumn 2007, but I strongly suspect that most other people will simply move on to other things. Other issues will quickly crowd this particularly saga out ..."
Oops!
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